Math-Lite Summary
- As far as we can tell, all packs have the same per slot drop rate.
- This leads to SPs having a higher average cost per UR drop than PSPs, APs and RPs since a potential UR drop from a SP costs 60k credits while a potential drop from a PSP, AP or RP costs 49.5k credits (due to them having two slots that can drop UR cards).
- For the packs that can drop multiple UR cards (PSPs, APs, and RPs), each slot is calculated independently.
- UR character drops and UR weapon drops are handled independently so if you get an UR character drop you are not being "cheated" out of an UR weapon drop.
- The current drop rate estimates and all the other details involving this project can be found here (last updated September 30, 2014)
About
I've resumed the effort to determine the UR drop rate that was started way back when for PSPs but was never thoroughly extended to the other pack types (at least that I have seen). While going through the old PSP data I did find that the script that was used to determine the drop rate was counting some non UR cards as URs leading to the drop rate that was found being a bit higher than it actually is. I've corrected that with this new effort.
At this point we have more than 10,000 samples per pack type which was my goal. The details of the project can be found here (last updated April 24, 2014). In addition to looking at drop rates and long term costs per UR it also includes info about UR drop streaks as well as information about the independence of the two slots that can drop URs in PSPs, APs and RPs, and UR characters vs UR weapons.
While the sample size goals have been reached I will still be doing occasional updates. If you have data you would like to share please email me at comradeshepard7@gmail.com or contact me on here. When you are sharing data please do it in batches of at least 50 purchases and provide it in the following format as it will make data entry easier for me:
Pack Type, Number of Packs Purchased, number of UR weapon cards dropped, number of packs with more than one drop
Current Progress
The goal for data collection for each pack is to get 10000 samples, and this has been reached. The sample size for each pack type is listed below:
- PSPs: 19834
- SPs: 10554
- APs: 12614
- RPs: 11606
Stuff that has changed since the topic was originally made:
- Linked document is now a pdf rather than a google doc as LaTeX gives a lot better formatting for figures and tables than a published google doc.
- The document now provides a lot more detail, including explanations of the math behind the project, which will hopefully help people understand the results a bit better.
- wngmv, DocDAM and I have now reached a consensus that the slots are independent. If you read anything about slot independence that was posted here before I suggest you forget it and take a look at the new stuff as there were errors in the previous versions.
- It has been determined that UR characters are handled independently from UR weapons.
- If you would like to see the data spreadsheet or the MATLAB scripts they can be found in a zip file here (last updated September 30, 2014). If you want to run the MATLAB script, UR_Drop_Analysis_Script.m is the main file, and you need to make sure all the MATLAB files and the spreadsheet are all in the same folder.
- Some discussion of the ammo and equipment dropped in SPs vs the 99k packs was added by Qui-Gon Glenn's suggestion to the parts where the packs are being compared. This information has been revised for accuracy.
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